What could an escalation in the Middle East mean for central banks?

In this monthly outlook, abrdn discusses what the events in the Middle east mean for central banks aiming to control inflation. The firm says that interest rates are likely to stay at current levels until mid-2024 before starting to fall again. Meanwhile, the US economy is set to grow until at least mid-2024, which increases the likelihood of a ‘soft landing’, but a mild recession is more probable. Finally the firm unpicks why rising global bond yields aren’t just a reaction to central banks’ ‘higher for longer’ message on interest rates, but also to changes in structural factors which underpin...