Global Economic Outlook Spring 2023: Everything everywhere all at once

We maintain our call for a sizable recession in the US at the end of the year due to a slowdown in housing, manufacturing and construction, while economic momentum stalls in the Eurozone as fiscal stimulus is gradually pared back. The outlook for the Chinese economy has improved, but global spillovers from the reopening are limited. We expect global growth to slow to +2.2% in 2023, and to recover very modestly to +2.3% in 2024. Barring the US, Germany, Italy and UK, other large advanced economies will manage to avoid recessions but emerging markets, and commodity importers in particular, will...